Trading Bank Shares
Posted in Investing on February 25th, 2009 by admin – Be the first to commentStock prices react to news and information, but the price is not always an accurate reflection of a company’s value in the short term. Information gaps, market sentiment and rumors, the price to deviate from a holding of the intrinsic value. In the long term, share price and the value should conclude, at least in theory. Price is a direct function of the risk and return. Market players have different risk/return profile, which means that a company’s own funds may not be attractive to everyone at some price. In a recession, however, strong support can be viewed as the risk/return trade-off of a particular security or sector begins with an appeal to a larger number of investors.
Therefore, identifying a period of strong fundamental support can help traders identify the bottom of a cycle. One way of looking to support the identification of fundamental ratios and comparing them with the previous 2000-2002 banking sector downturn. Two important ratios for Price Earnings (P/E) and Price to Book (P/B). The P/E multiple compare a bank’s share price with its last annual earnings per share. The P/B multiple compares a company share price with its book value of equity, also known as “own resources” (total assets minus total liabilities). Looking at the lowest P/E and P/B ratios of the banking sector 2000-2002 recession, most of the FTSE 100 banks have been trading at lower P/E and P/B multiples than in the previous downturn. The fact that most of the banks are trading under comparable multiples shows a lack of fundamental support levels and indicates that investors are not so much weight to these multiples as they did in the past. This is possible because the market is reacting to negative news about write downs and a slowdown in the economy.
Investors may also be discounting the large retailers on the basis that the systematic (sector) and unsystematic (firm specific) risks inherent in the banking sector downturn is unique and much greater than the risks described in earlier declines. The last BLOWOUT credit and the introduction of leveraged securitized products have made it a more dangerous playground as the risks present in this decline are difficult to quantify. Liquidity constraints on the secondary market have doubts or concerns about a number of issues, including the alternative valuation methods used to price complex securitized products, the level of depreciation to date and the possibility of future losses. In turn, this also corrupt the accuracy of future profit projections. All these factors may help explain why a period of P/E and P/B multiples are at historic lows. It is therefore a fundamental lack of support and an increased likelihood of systematic and unsystematic risks incurred as a result of a more pronounced decline in the British housing market, leads me to believe that the sector has not yet reached a bottom yet.
Balance Sheet Restructuring and risk management are among the main functions of a bank at the moment. This, I believe that the cost controls, sales of non-core assets, a bank’s ability to attract resources and reducing the exposure of certain asset backed securities will all play an important role in helping liquidity and the most important issues forward. So should we be buying banking shares and spread bet on the stocks to increase? What do professional think? Anthony Grech, Analyst, IG Index, said in its Banking Report 2008 which he considers that “banks have successfully managed to survive this downturn will ultimately prove to be excellent investment opportunities within the next 5 years.
Speculators who are interested in the sector the upside prospects can start very small quantities of their wealth during the fall. But I must caution that I also believe that further sub-prime news and the economic slowdown in the United Kingdom and the U.S. will drag on the sector and that better access levels can be achieved at a later stage. Spread betting carries a high risk to your money. You can lose more than you initially invest. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money you can afford to lose. Make sure you understand the risks and seek independent financial advice if and when necessary.







